📉 SMC Gold Trading Strategy: Price Breaks Below Key Support
Gold prices have started to correct as global geopolitical tensions face a potential turning point. News of upcoming talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine on resolving the ongoing conflict has injected volatility into the markets. While diplomatic progress could reduce safe-haven demand for gold, technical factors are also pointing toward a potential downside move — aligning with a bearish setup in our SMC Gold trading strategy.
From a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) perspective, the price action has shown a clear shift in market structure. After a strong bullish leg in early August, gold broke below its ascending trendline, indicating that bullish momentum is weakening. This break was confirmed by a retest failure, where price could not reclaim higher levels.
Currently, gold is hovering just above the 3360 support level, which aligns with the 200-period moving average (200-MA) — a zone that has historically acted as a dynamic support. This is a critical signal in SMC-based trading because it suggests that institutional traders may be positioning for short entries.
Looking at the Fair Value Gap (FVG) marked on the chart, there’s a high probability that price will seek to fill this inefficiency before establishing any major reversal. This gap sits in the 3330 zone, which is also our projected take-profit (TP) level for short positions.
Trade Plan (SMC Gold Trading Strategy):
- Bias: Bearish
- Trigger: Consolidation and confirmed break below 3360 support.
- Entry: Short positions only after price closes below 3360 and shows continuation patterns.
- Target: 3330 (FVG fill zone).
From a news and events perspective, traders should monitor the geopolitical talks closely. Any positive developments could further pressure gold prices downward, while a breakdown in negotiations could trigger a sharp bounce. Additionally, upcoming US inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary may act as catalysts for volatility, potentially accelerating the move toward our target.
In the framework of SMC Gold trading strategy, we are essentially waiting for the market to align both technical signals (trendline break, support level) and fundamental factors (news flow) before committing capital. This disciplined approach helps filter out false signals and focuses only on high-probability setups.
SMC Gold Trading Strategy Trade Idea:
🔽 Short trade ONLY (⚠️) on consolidation below 3360.
🎯 TP: 3330.
💬 What’s your take on this setup? Do you see gold heading for the FVG fill, or could support hold? Share your thoughts below.
